Understanding the Missing Biden Voters: Research Findings by Lake Research Partners
Lake Research Partners designed a mixed mode (online and text-to-online) survey that was administered and conducted from April 29-June 5, 2025. The survey reached a total of 822 “Biden skippers,” registered voters who voted for President Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election and did not vote in the 2024 Presidential Election.
The Biden skippers, who voted for Biden in 2020 but sat out 2024, are a key element to rebuilding the foundational Democratic coalition.
According to Lake Research Partner’s survey:
These skippers were largely winnable, paying attention, and made an active choice not to vote. A solid majority (56%) of them would have voted for Harris if they cast a ballot while only 25% would have supported Trump.
They hold a more favorable view of Democrats, including Democrats in Congress (+40%), than general population surveys might suggest.
These skippers want fighters, not folders, who beat back the MAGA Agenda. The best-testing message focuses on the Democratic Party standing strong against the Trump Administration and their massive tax breaks for the wealthiest.
Voters are clear (72%) that the problems in our country come from having an economic system where the richest 1% have taken $50 trillion in wealth from 90% of Americans over the past few decades rather than from too much spending, wokeness, and immigration. (20%) Developing a populist economic vision that re-engages them is key to winning Biden skippers back.
The Harris campaign’s economic message did not resonate with these voters, and it became the main sticking point for their disaffection (31%). Very few cited Harris being “too liberal” as a reason for sitting out.
They are deeply motivated by healthcare, and they want elected officials to prioritize making it more affordable/accessible—a striking finding given MAGA Republicans’ massive Medicaid cuts.
